– Intensive speculation on the Fed QE2 has actively penalized the greenback. You will even find a start rising slightly taken behind the book compared to other assets of the same class. This is explained by the appearance at the time of another speculation of the same type, that the English would be ready to follow the lead of U.S. in another QE2. As this speculation on the monetary policy of the BoE is tempered, cable took an upward momentum, allowing it to clear the psychological threshold of 1.60 USD.
– Strengthening of the pair correlation risk sentiment. Over the weeks, ENTERED cable ties and U.S. indices are strengthened.
For the concept of risk, depend on U.S. indices that are in the process of correcting as most risky assets. The mechanical bull will return again in place at the discretion of the business results and mechanically when liquidity injections by the Fed provided in a range from 75 to 100 billion per month.
From a graphical point of view daily data, the opening of Bollinger Bands is good news for the bulls to keep the hand and the trend remains bullish despite a way to attack of sellers. The 1.6070 support, input threshold advocated yesterday guarantees upward momentum of short term, sellers for their defending zone of 1.6170 USD at the base of the center line of the bullish channel in place (pink line on the graph). Below 1.6070, we find the 1.5960 USD key threshold medium term and MM20, which should contain the bear attacks. Note that this is the retracement 50% of the wave 1.5650 USD-1.63 USD. As prices gravitate above this threshold, the bullish momentum is not in danger.